Technology Analysis by Glenn O'Donnell

The Curse (and Opportunity) of Complexity

2005-04-27T19:24:00.000-04:00

Contemporary IT systems are inherently complex. They need to be complex because the business requirements served by the technology are complex and ever changing. Infrastructure is becoming more intelligent, virtualized, and flexible and all of this results in more complexity. Add to this the growth of powerful new J2EE-based applications and new services such as IP Telephony, and the result can be dizzying. Even the best and brightest minds in IT cannot comprehend this labyrinth.

Complexity grows exponentially because the number of relationships between elements increases exponentially. The mathematics of exponential growth is amazing. To point this out, think about the following challenge. Place a penny on one square of a chessboard. On the next square, double that (2 cents). Double again, and so on, and so on. Upon completion of the first row (8 squares), there is $2.55 on the board. With two rows filled (16 squares), you have $655.35. With the board half-filled (32 squares), it contains just under $43 million! Run the calculation to a full board for an astronomical number. This exponential pattern should be familiar to anyone with a background in Computer Science, Mathematics, or Engineering. It’s the binary sequence (powers of two).

Nobody can deny that IT complexity will continue to compound for the foreseeable future, and I contend it will indeed continue exponentially. If we are unable to deal with the current environment, how can we possibly deal with the future state? The answer lies in processes, automation technology, and discipline.

Processes formalize and standardize the methods that define what we do. There has been a great deal of rhetoric given to processes, but we finally have true process definitions available to the masses. The IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) offers a good starting point for process refinement. I’ll write more on the benefits and drawbacks of ITIL later, but it is clear that it is valuable as a common language to define several of our processes. Many IT organizations have successfully and dramatically improved operational efficiency.

Technology has always proven to be a key to managing complexity. We know this as automation. In the IT realm, we’ve come to rely on monitoring tools to help us understand the behavior of our systems. Yes, this is a basic form of automation. The next step will come in the form of configuration and change management tools. This stage is already well in progress. Automation is the manifestation of the right sets of tools properly applied to properly defined processes.

So the question that comes to mind is, “If we rely on technology to manage other technology, is this a vicious cycle?” Absolutely, but it is indicative again of the exponential nature of complexity. Compounding technology upon technology no doubt exacerbates complexity, but we have no choice. Our technology has outpaced our ability to manage it any other way.

This entire issue distills itself into a desperate need for discipline, more specifically engineering discipline. Thankfully, it is this very form of discipline that keeps passenger jets aloft, skyscrapers standing upright, and bridges spanning dangerous chasms. Engineering discipline is also the secret to viewing complexity not as a threat, but as an opportunity. How can this be so?

We all live in a competitive atmosphere. If my employer competes with your employer, it is my duty to manage complexity better than you. Otherwise, my employer and I risk irrelevance. The very best companies don’t just defend against complexity; they leverage it to their benefit. Rather than responding to change, they instigate change in their industry. Traditional travel agents are painfully aware of this dynamic, as companies such as Priceline, Orbitz, Travelocity, and Expedia have forever altered the nature of the travel business.

The unfortunate truth is that companies who succeed at addressing complexity will be in the minority. Those who can master engineering discipline will have an overwhelming competitive advantage. The remaining companies face a beleaguered future. Winners will prosper because they are confronting a looming challenge and will transform complexity into a force that propels them to an even loftier position.

Now is a great time to thrive on complexity. Those who do must abandon many of the practices of the past and the need to develop adaptive architectures and automation technology portfolios is paramount. No pursuit with such high stakes is easy. That’s what makes it so seductive to the right intellect!

WiMAX: The Next Big Techno-craze

2005-04-20T07:57:00.000-04:00

Ever since WiMAX appeared on the scene, I’ve been a fan. Those who know me well, understand my affinity for wireless in many forms (I’m a ham radio operator!). This technology, however, has far more going for it than just one market watcher’s personal opinion. The economic benefits of WiMAX are too persuasive as a technology to support wireless broadband access and other communications needs.

Intel’s announcement of the release of its first WiMAX product marks the beginning of an acceleration of interest and what will be a flurry of hyperbole from all interested parties. The truth is that this milestone is an economic event that will indeed catapult WiMAX into the mainstream because it makes WiMAX cheap. Any technology that satisfies a voracious market appetite and is inexpensive will enjoy explosive success. The wild growth of Wi-Fi® was just the beginning. WiMAX and its successors will fuel the next phase of wireless growth.

Carriers view WiMAX as an opportunity for generating some badly-needed revenue. Expect new services, especially consumer-oriented broadband services and small business access to become widespread by 2007/08. Early services (many using pre-standard technology) are already appearing. Hopes for redemption of the carriers will be a mostly quixotic vision, however. Yes, carriers need to provide WiMAX and other wireless broadband services, but rapid commoditization and easier competition from competitors will limit profit potential within a few years. In the beginning, a slight premium will be acceptable, however competing broadband technologies will force lower pricing.

Equipment manufacturers need to embrace WiMAX to complete the rapid growth. PC manufacturers have already announced their support and now that the Intel chips are on their way, plans to integrate them into PCs can be realized. As usual, high-end business systems will lead the trend. Within a few years, even consumer-grade systems will include chip sets that will include hybrid capabilities for Wi-Fi, WiMAX and the next generations of broadband wireless (IEEE P802.22™ is in the works). The system will determine the best choice.

Enterprises who adopt WiMAX must address management issues, like any other network technology. Vendors must provide management instrumentation for monitoring and control of the technology, including security. The operational issues cannot be ignored if the technology is to be successful in the enterprise and carriers will also require robust instrumentation.

Wireless broadband services promise dramatic changes in how we all interact electronically. The potential is far beyond the pockets of Wi-Fi available today. We all need to understand the implications of pervasive access and mobility that will be available to us and how this will continue to drive the trend toward virtualized organizations. For those of us who follow technology market development, it is an exciting time!

Is Quallaby a Quality Buy for Micromuse?

2005-04-15T13:43:00.000-04:00

On the heels of the CA acquisition of Concord, we have another consolidation step that exhibits some of the same characteristics. On 08-Apr-2005, Micromuse announced its agreement to acquire Quallaby for $33 million. Being a private company, Quallaby does not publish its revenue, but its estimated revenue of $12-14 million makes the purchase price reasonable.

Strategically, this is a good fit for Micromuse, as its performance monitoring capabilities were lacking, despite some excellent technology for fault monitoring. This is yet another proof point that the previously distinct markets for fault and performance monitoring tools have inexorably merged. Any company addressing one or the other, while not fully embracing the other, will face a difficult future.

In essence, the two are fundamentally similar. Whereas one focuses on binary events (up/down, black/white), the other deals in “shades of gray.” Either way, the goal is to identify anomalies through automated analysis and then to process and escalate these events for resolution. As such, the two capabilities belong together and should share some common technology elements and certainly share process flow.

This deal has little immediate impact on enterprise customers, but service provider customers should benefit. Both companies have focused heavily on service providers and the products already integrate relatively well, the result of a tight technology partnership. The integration of the two companies should proceed with relative ease and the realization of the full benefits of the Quallaby technology should take 9-12 months. This is quick by industry standards.

In both markets, growth will come from an ability to automate data correlation and analysis to simplify service operations. Micromuse has historically done well at correlation, but other vendors have trumped its technology. Its most tenacious competitor has been SMARTS, whose success has come largely at the expense of Micromuse. Promises of improvements in Micromuse’s Netcool/Precision product, in conjunction with the Quallaby technology should markedly improve its competitive position.

Of course, Micromuse faces challenges itself as it competes more directly with the management behemoths (e.g., BMC, CA, HP OpenView, and IBM Tivoli). As the large players have traditionally not served the service provider market, this market has proven to be a safe haven for Micromuse. As it tries to grow, however, it must become more competitive in the enterprise, where the competition is fierce.

In summary, Quallaby is a good fit for Micromuse, as it needs this capability to survive. Micromuse itself remains an acquisition target however, and this move will make it more attractive to its suitors.

Copyright © 2005 by Glenn O’Donnell

IT Operations are Growing Up

2005-04-14T17:01:00.000-04:00

It is no secret to most of us in IT that we suffer a serious credibility crisis with senior business leaders. Our historical sloppiness in our development and operations has fostered a culture wherein IT is viewed as a “necessary evil” instead of a valued enabler of business agility. The time has come to change this situation and fortunately, many are.

The general indictment against IT obviously does not apply to the few companies that have mastered the process, technology, and organizational rhythm in their IT organizations. These companies, whose names should not come as a surprise (e.g., Wal-Mart, Fidelity, Yahoo), have revolutionized their industries in large part because they are leveraging their well-orchestrated IT environments. In fact, many of them are basically IT organizations tailored for a specific business (e.g., Yahoo and Google, Amazon and eBay). It’s ALL about IT!

So, what are others doing to join the elite ranks of these leaders? Fundamentally, there is a dramatic cultural adjustment under way that is compelling them to address process refinement first, application of automation technologies (i.e., management tools) to those processes, and finally breaking down the long-reviled political barriers by organizing along processes instead of technology silos.

This is not an easy transition, nor is it inexpensive, however the evidence clearly shows that companies must take such measures to survive. Those who resist change are doomed to a dismal future. Either the business leaders, in an act of exasperation, will resort to punitive outsourcing (the “shape up or ship out” ultimatum) or the entire company will deteriorate in a downward spiral. In either of these two scenarios, the outlook is grim for anyone who adheres to the status-quo.

Of course, the role of regulatory compliance is a huge force in this movement. The various regulations are mandating tight controls on businesses to build a culture of discipline. This discipline is inextricably entangled into the IT environment, so senior leaders are passing on the need for structure to IT. This is the business equivalent of the parent imposing strict guidelines on the tempestuous teenager. The sloppiness of the past is no longer being tolerated. In essence, the adolescent is beginning to mature into adulthood, more by force than desire. IT is finally growing up as a result of what eventually coerces us all to grow up. The additional responsibility and complexity of life requires more discipline to avoid failure.

Charles Darwin put it best in his legendary work On the Origin of Species where he laid out the proof that those species that survive are those that adapt best to change. The IT world is changing and we must all change with it if we want to avoid becoming another footnote in evolution along with the Dodo bird. The most effective change will be a new philosophy of discipline and many will find this change to be a difficult one.

Copyright © 2005 by Glenn O’Donnell

Concord Acquisition is a Barometer for the New CA

2005-04-12T16:39:00.000-04:00

On 07-Apr-2005, Computer Associates announced its intention to acquire Concord Communications for $330 million. This is good news for Concord’s shareholders, as the company was declining and its future as an autonomous entity was bleak.

Whether this development is good for customers of either Concord or CA remains a question of execution. CA’s record of execution on such acquisitions is less than stellar, however optimists will point to CA’s new leadership as hope for a new direction for the company. I, for one, hope this is true, but we should all watch this acquisition carefully, as it will prove to be a barometer for the “new CA.”

This is the first major acquisition for CA since John Swainson has taken the helm as CEO. Swainson has proven his mettle as a strong and decisive leader, which is just what CA needs now. His keen understanding of the software business should bode well for the execution of the Concord deal.

Of course, most of the actual decisions and execution of this deal fall to less-senior CA management. To this end, it is notable that the central figure, Alan Nugent, is another fresh face within CA. Between the two, fears of this deal being handled in the historical “CA Way” should be mitigated. As almost all acquisitions have difficulties in the assimilation of the purchased company, problems with the integration of Concord will be more associated with product overlap and less with executive execution.

The market for Concord’s core performance monitoring business has commoditized, putting pressure on Concord and other high-end performance tool vendors to slash prices or to dramatically expand their offerings. Concord has attempted to address both, but with limited success. The majority of its revenue remains focused on its eHealth line of network monitoring products. Application monitoring has received tepid reception against formidable application management competitors such as Mercury, Wily, and Veritas. Concord’s Business Service Management (BSM) offering was a lost cause from its inception. Concord had no chance against BSM leaders such as Managed Objects, Mercury, and the “Big Four” (BMC, CA, HP OpenView, IBM Tivoli).

Concord’s recent acquisition of Aprisma yields one of the jewels of the product portfolio, however even here, CA faces problems with overlapping technologies. Aprisma’s SPECTRUM product is superior in many ways to CA’s Unicenter NSM product, so CA faces some painful but necessary decisions to either replace Unicenter’s core technology with SPECTRUM or to fuse the two into a more comprehensive product. This latter solution is the best one, but one that will be extremely difficult. Both Unicenter and SPECTRUM will require significant code modification to integrate properly. This extra code will add bloat to the overall product. One way to reduce this bloat would be to remove existing API support but this is impossible. Both products boast extensive third-party integration programs, so legacy API support is required.

In the broad sense, CA will need 12-24 months to fully navigate the complex issues with assimilating Concord into its product portfolio. In the near term, the acquisition should be good for Concord customers who can feel some relief that their software investments are secure. All in the industry should follow developments carefully to gain some sense of where CA is headed under its new leadership. My personal position is that while the next two years will be painful for many in CA, I am optimistic in the long term, as my opinion of the new CA leadership is positive.

The Passing of Bill Shorter: Dear Friend and Mentor

2004-10-11T11:22:00.000-04:00

How tragic it is that my inaugural blog posting is about the loss of a wonderful person. In some way, I hope to immortalize the great Bill Shorter with this post.

Hi obituary in the Morning Call, the local Lehigh Valley newspaper:
mcall.com - Obituaries, Deathnotices, Guestbooks

I added the following entry to the on-line guest book:

I was deeply saddened to receive news of the passing of the great (John) Bill Shorter. This is truly a tragic loss to many people, but we are all blessed to have known and loved the jovial and brilliant "J Willie."

I worked with Bill at what ultimately became Agere Systems. I am one of an army of Lehigh Valley and New Jersey technology professionals who credit our successful careers in large part to our wise and generous mentor Bill Shorter. He taught us about evolving computer systems in our formative years and became a dear friend and trusted confidant on issues ranging from new technologies to the changing winds of company politics to the challenges of love and family. His heart was as expansive as his mind. I could always count on Bill to offer thoughtful advice throughout our years together and hopefully, he benefitted from all of us who viewed him with such deep respect.

The masses who now mourn our loss is a testament to his extraordinary personna. We will all miss him enormously, but his legacy is within each of us. His gift of inspiration has infused so many of us that he cannot ever truly disappear from this earth. In this sense, he has become immortal. His influence proves this every day.

Thank you Bill!